Prevention of cardiovascular disease and the future of cardiovascular disease epidemiology.

BACKGROUND Coronary heart disease is preventable. The improved interpretation of risk factors, in vivo non-invasive measuring of arteries, brain and heart, and proven efficacy of both non-pharmacological and pharmaceutical therapies provides the model for both cardiovascular prevention programmes and new epidemiological studies. METHODS Risk factors can be subdivided into those related to the development of atherosclerosis with relatively long incubation periods, and risk factors that moderate the changes in atherosclerotic plaque, thrombosis and fibrinolysis, i.e. those with short incubation periods, or proximate risk factors. RESULTS The level of ApoB containing lipoproteins, low density lipoprotein (LDL) and very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) are the primary determinants of atherosclerosis. Using non-invasive methods of measuring atherosclerosis, we can evaluate the efficacy of intervention to both prevent the development of atherosclerosis and the progression of disease. The importance of proximate risk factors, especially inflammatory markers, is less estimated than long incubation period factors. It is possible that a combination of measures of subclinical atherosclerosis and proximate risk factors may provide the best estimate of the risk of clinical disease, especially among higher risk older individuals. CONCLUSIONS The measurement of subclinical disease and new proximate risk factors (i.e. inflammation, fibrinolysis) may be useful for comparing reported differences in rates of clinical disease among populations and monitoring the emerging epidemic of cardiovascular disease in countries that currently have low death rates due to cardiovascular disease.